Wednesday, 20 May 2009

Great Expectations

"Now, I return to this young fellow. And the communication I have got to make is, that he has great expectations."
- Charles Dickens



There are, at the time of writing this blog, 874,841 members on Yuwie. Out of that total membership, there are many who believe that you can actually earn a reasonable amount of money on Yuwie. The question is, just how true is that?


To answer this question we first have to establish what a 'reasonable amount of money' is. This is a moot point so I'm going to offer up the sum of $10 a month as an arbitrary figure. This isn't going to pay off your mortgage but it will get you a couple of celebratory drinks or a meal once a month. Some people may wish to aim a little higher but for now we'll leave it at $10.


Secondly, we need to clarify exactly how you earn money on Yuwie. As you all should know, your earnings are determined by two factors:


1)The number of page views you accumulate, both from your own time spent on Yuwie and that of your referrals.
2) The RSR or revenue sharing rate, which is determined by the site owner, based on the level of advertising revenue generated by the site each month. If you want to know how the RSR is determined then you'll have to ask the site owner.


As the RSR is variable and set by the site owner, you have no direct control over it. The only way in which you can have any influence on it is indirectly - by the total number of page views the site generates overall and the number of times that ads are clicked on, and clicked through. It is fair to assume that the higher the total number of page views and ad clicks, the greater the advertisng revenues will be. This in turn should lead to a higher RSR, ultimately raising the level of earnings of all members.


So that is how you earn money on Yuwie. The next step is how much money can you earn? In theory there is no limit and I'm sure you're all familiar with the table showing how much you can earn so I'm not going to bother reproducing that here. But that is the theory, what about in practice? Now it's time for a reality check.


The graph below was constructed using the data obtained from blogs posted by four members and my own personal earnings and referral stats. All of this data relates to early 2008, so it's over a year old. However, the basic principle behind the graph will, I suggest, remain the same. I am, like anyone else should be, open to question, so if you believe that what the graph shows is not a reasonably accurate representation of the situation today, then I invite any members to send me their current earnings and referral stats and I will gladly construct another from current data.


The blogs used were these:


Christina 1
Christina 2
Thomas 1
Thomas 2
Sherry 1
Sherry 2
Superman

NB The data for Superman was taken from his blogs which were posted when I originally collected the data. As they are no longer up then I cannot confirm the figures for referral totals and rank. But they were for April 2008. The earnings figure however is in his blog above.


The values at the top of the graph are:

1) Refs = total referrals
2) Rank = total views


The x axis shows page views in millions and the y axis shows monthly earnings in $

The broken lines are added to illustrate the approximate number of page views required to earn $10 or $100 a month.

The points on the graph are the monthly earnings relating to the page views, at that time, of the members shown.


Yes it's a roughly drawn graph because I don't have any software that would produce a nice, perfectly plotted one. Yes it's constructed from a limited data set, but as I said earlier, I'm quite happy to use a lot more data if I have access to it. For those who may doubt either my ability to produce this graph or my credentials in handling such data and using it to produce a graph like this, then I offer the following.


I have an academic background which covers general scientific qualifications, higher chemistry qualifications and a BSc(hons) degree in Environmental Science. I have over 7 years experience of working within the Research & Development section of a major refractories producer based in the UK with overseas divisions around the world. I am accustomed to obtaining data from a range of experimental scientific work, analysing it and presenting the results either in statistical or graphical form. Personally, I think I'm more than qualified to produce a basic graph like this, I've done hundreds of them.


So here it is.






Before I go any further I should explain something about this graph that a lot of you may not be aware of. As you can see it is not a straight line but a curve. This is because a straight line graph results from data based on an arithmetric progression i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, ..., rather than a geometric progression i.e. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16... Because your referrals increase geometrically i.e. 3, 9, 27.. then a graph based on such data will result in an exponential curve like the one shown above. A minor point but I thought I had better explain why it was a curve and not a straight line.



Right, down to the important business here.



What this graph effectively shows is the number of page views you will need to accumulate in order to earn a given amount of money per month e.g. if you want to earn $100 a month then you will need approximately 3,000,000 page views each month. In essence it gives you a rough guide on how much money you can expect to earn based on how many page views you have. I must stress that it is a ROUGH GUIDE because your earnings are dependent upon the RSR for each month. Also, because of the different earnings percentages applied to each referral level, you should not expect your earnings to fall exactly on the curve, they will be scattered around it but will be more or less in line with the curve itself.



So there's your rough guide to how much you can expect to earn on Yuwie, based on the number of page views you receive per month. Now is there anything else you can take from this graph? Yes, there is.



1) You are never going to earn a lot of money by chasing page views. To earn $10 a month you will need about 500,000 page views. To reach this target on your own is physically impossible - unless of course you live on a planet where there are 100 hours in a day - and you would have to be clinically insane to even attempt it. All of this comment ping-pong; you-rate-me-and-I'll-rate-you; post a comment blog and you'll get loads of page views; give me, give me page views etc merely qualifies you for a holiday in the bouncy room.



So why do people (especially those in your 'upline' who are telling you that they're helping you) say that this is the way to go? Because it earns THEM money. Whether they are aware of this or not is either a case of being motivated by greed; or uninformed, learned behaviour; respectively. Judge for yourselves.



2) The only way that you are going to achieve 500,000 or more page views is by signing up lots of referrals underneath you. If you look at the figures for total referrals at the top of the graph, you will see just how many (approximately) referrals you will need to earn a given amount of money per month. For instance, if you draw a straight line up from the $10/500,000 page view mark, you will see that you need to have somewhere between 1,000 and 12,000 referrals. It's hard to say exactly how many without plotting earnings against referrals on logarithmic graph paper. You must judge for yourselves what the chances are of obtaining this many referrals.



3) Now turn your attention to the ranking figures which are based on the total number of page views a member has per month. This is the really good part. My ranking was 777 then (it's now 1405). The site membership then was about 750,000. This means that there were 776 members above me in the rankings, which leaves about 749,000 members below me, all squeezed into the tiny gap between me and 0. This means that all 749,000 of them were earning less than me - $1.62. If you can't see what this means - and I do hesitate to call anyone stupid, but if the cape (sic) fits then wear it - let me spell it out for you in simple terms. 776 out of 749,000 = 0.1%, I repeat 0.1%. Are you with me yet? Okay, I will spell it out. This is the way it is, 99.9% of the membership of this site can expect to earn less than what I'm earning.



4)The main curve is drawn in a solid line and labelled(1). The broken line curve labelled(2) represents the shift in the main curve(1) if there was an increase in the following variables:

a) Page views; b) RSR; c) Total site membership

The broken line curve labelled(3) represents the shift in the main curve(1) if there was a decrease in these same variables.



I have included these to illustrate the point that any variations in the values above, whether positive or negative, has a greater effect at the top of the curve than it does at the bottom. That is because it is an exponential curve, it's in the nature of the beast.



So there you have it, a rough guide to how much money you can expect to earn on Yuwie. This is the business side of the site and what you take from this blog will be up to you, because as y-guy says - "Use this site as it should be used, for social networking and let the money take care of itself."



It should be noted that the same principles outlined above are equally applicable to all other sites whose payment structure is based on a referral pyramid system. These are the reasons why pyramid schemes are illegal. But remember that Yuwie is not a pyramid scheme because you are not selling anything.

2 comments:

  1. The Reality is that 15 or 20 people out of The "800,000" actually make something-other than the "family" good guy Korry of course. And since you have to reach $5 to get paid-very few have actually received anything but a promise. I have 8400 friends out of that number maybe 500 actually still particpate. Newbies last 1 week to a year. THERE IS NO MONEY TO BE MADE ON YUWIE!
    IT IS A BIG LIE-HE SHOULD BE SUED FOR FALSE ADVERTISING. It is a false pyramid promise.
    But as a social network it can be fun, the users who do participate are great people. It is the owner who is a SCUM BAG

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  2. He's a greedy one at that! lol
    His protestations of not playing favorites really gets to me. Take a look at the comments on my blog here...."Try This Again!" These are the sort of people he encourages. Many have said they've left Yuwie over cheating and nothing being done....yet when you express this opinon, you get called "drama queen'.

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